Bourn Again?
May 15, 2009 by Dustin
Filed under Articles, Astros, Player Profile
If you have seen any of The Astros this year you may notice that speedy center fielder Michael Bourn is no longer an automatic out as he was all of last year. To refresh your memory, this is the 2008 Michael Bourn:  Bourn Not Getting On Base In 2008 AB’s: 467 Batting Avg: .229 On Base %: .288 Impressive no? Background: Bourn was the centerpiece in The Brad Lidge to Philadelphia Trade. (Lidge, Bruntlett >Bourn, Geary, Custanzo) Astros new GM Ed Wade deemed Bourn a “spark plug” at the top of the order. A speedy on-base type who could steal 40+ bags. Sounds good right? Well, one problem. Bourn decided 2008 wasn’t a good year to get on base. He soon realized it’s a lot harder to steal bases and score runs when you are not on base. However, he was still the meat of that trade and needed to produce so Astros brass stuck with him. He was moved from the #1 spot in the order to #7 in an attempt to relax him. Still, Bourn was unproductive. Bourn’s inability to get on base was a huge concern moving into the 2009 season. His performance this year could either make or break Wade as Astros GM.  Bourn Scoring in 2009 So, how is he doing? 2009 M. Bourn: AB’s: 123 Batting Avg: .317 What Gives? Bourn’s early 2009 success derives form a new approach at the plate. Bourn claims that over the winter break he had success sitting on pitches longer in winter ball, and apparently this approach has paid dividends in the states as well. Basically, Bourn waits slightly longer before swinging at a potential strike. This approach allows him to recognize breaking balls better and should equal fewer strike outs. Has it worked? From a basic spectator’s vantage point it would appear that this approach has relaxed Bourn and having seen several Astros games this week (Gotta love Extra Innings TV Package) and I have yet to see Michael have a really bad at bat. He is drawing lots of pitches and making solid contact. Let’s look closer at the numbers: 2008 vs 2009 BB%: 7.3 vs 9.6 *More walks, fewer strike outs, and he is hitting the ball harder and more often. Looks real good on paper. How about plate discipline? % Of Swings Outside Zone: Batting Avg Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: * His patience has improved as he is able to recognize pitches better. Also, he is actually hitting against left handed pitchers, making him a certified full time player, and not a easy out vs southpaws.
 Can Bourn Maintain His Fast Start? Can he maintain this pace? As is the case in baseball, he who can adapt will succeed, and so far Michael has adapted to major league pitching. The question is, what happens when pitchers again change their strategy when facing him? My take: Bourn will be a more than serviceable CF this year. I project an on base % of around .355 by The All Star Break. That number is adequate for a burner and if Michael continues to play amazing defense and stealing a base every three games you may see Bourn with lots of runs, 50 stolen bases, and a permanent spot atop The Astros order. Upcoming: - Bourn isn’t the only Astros Hitter to dramatically improve in 2009. Next, I will take a look at emerging youngster Hunter Pence and try to uncover his 2009 secret to success. |
