What The Fukudome…
May 21, 2009 by Dustin
Filed under Articles, Cubs, Player Profile
Is the 2009 Kosuke Fukudome the real deal or are we seeing the 2008 version repeat itself?
 Fukudome Looks Great So Far In 2009, Is It Real? What’s The Story? - Here’s the story, The Cubs signed Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome before the start of the 2008 season to fill a vacant outfield spot and had hopes of boosting The Cubs lineup with some of the 31HR and 104 RBI’s he had hit in his last full Japanese season. What’s The Problem? - So far, there is no problem. Fukudome came into the big leagues in 2008 and absolutely knocked the cover off the ball just as he had done in Japan. - In April 2008, Fukudome’s batting line looked like this: -Those numbers are very impressive and it seemed like The Cubs may have found a gem. - Here’s the problem. Fukudome’s numbers progressively dropped off from that impressive start each month of the season. (avg/obp/slg) May: .293/.388/.404 June: .264/.387/.402 July: .236/.306/.382 August: .193/.293/.253 September: .187/.288/.289 How’s He Doing Now? - The 2009 season is looking eerily like the 2008 season all over again. Currently, Fukudome is hitting very well, his current line: - His current .966 OPS ranks him 15th in the NL. Ahead of players like Ryan Howard, Carlos Lee & teammate Alfonso Soriano. That’s Good Right? - Absolutely that’s good, there is just one catch. His 2008 trend has already begun to show itself and with Lou Pinella and The Cubs riding Fukudome’s bat into The NL Central race, a 2008 Fukudome would be a HUGE obstacle for the Cubs, who are already struggling at the plate. - Fukudome’s 2009 Splits: April: .338/.461/.592 May: .304/.418/.413 - Now, those May numbers are still quite good, but that doesn’t help worried Cubs fans who can’t help but remember his epic decline. - To better help you appreciate the drop from April to May, let’s see where Fukudome ranks in each month. In April Fukudome was the 4th best hitter in The NL based on his OPS. Ahead of Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun & David Wright. However, in May Fukudome would rank as the 38th best hitter (based on OPS). Right next to Elijah Dukes. But He Looks Better At The Plate In 2009!? - That’s true, from the many Cubs games I’ve seen this year Fukudome does look improved at the plate. So, I did some digging and found some stats to support my theory. - Let’s compare some advanced batting numbers from 08 and 09. BB%: 14% vs 19% K%: 21% vs 18.5% - More walks and fewer strike outs will always make you a better hitter. But what has he changed to walk more? He has been more Patient. O-Swing %: 20% vs 13.7% Z-Swing%: 62% vs 55% Swing %: 41% vs 33% - Fukudome is swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and has made pitchers work harder and longer in each at bat against him.
Will It Last? - This is the money question, and something no one really knows for sure. However, if I had to venture a guess I would say that Fukudome is likely to decline quite a bit in the next few months. Many factors led to that guess, but notably, his BABIP is much higher this year than it was last year, meaning he is getting some luck on many of his batted balls, which is likely to even out over the course of a season and lower his elevated Line Drive % spike so far this season. Also, without Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, a 2008 Geo. Soto and a vintage Derrek Lee to help, Fukudome will be counted on to supply a much larger slice of the RBI pie this year, as evidence by Pinella batting Fukudome 3rd a majority of this season. Should Cubs Fan Worry? - Worry is a strong word and I would prefer to say, remain “cautiously pessamistic.” There is a very good chance Fukudome will regress but if he is able to continue to have long at bats and maintain his walk to strike ratio he will still be better than he was in 2008. |
